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Elon Musk makes his Oval Office debut, the EU vows retaliation over Donald Trump’s tariffs, and Ital͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 12, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Musk in Oval Office
  2. EU vows tariff retaliation
  3. No US rate cut planned
  4. Trump’s Canada vote boost
  5. US spies on Mexico cartels
  6. Italy’s mafia crackdown
  7. DRC rebels break ceasefire
  8. Battery giant to list in HK
  9. Argentina rent control end
  10. Ocean carbon capture

WWII bombs in an English playground, and recommending a book about bridging political divides.

1

Musk’s Oval Office debut

Musk and Trump.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Elon Musk used his debut appearance in the Oval Office to defend his slashing of the US federal workforce. President Donald Trump also outlined plans for “large-scale cuts” to government headcount and further empowered Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency with an executive order saying federal agencies should only hire one person for every four they lose. The appearance was a “demonstration of unity between Trump and Musk,” a CNN analyst said, in the wake of widespread suggestions, including a Time Magazine cover, that Musk is the one really in charge. But Musk’s cuts could be politically unpopular, and Trump’s “tolerance for a performer who rivals his love for the spotlight” may be limited.

To read more on Musk’s influence over the US government, subscribe to Principals, Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter.  →

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2

EU vows US tariff retaliation

Chart showing European steel exports to the US.

Fears of a transatlantic trade war intensified as the European Union vowed retaliation over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc would take “firm and proportionate” action in response to 25% US import duties on steel and aluminum, saying that tariffs “are taxes — bad for business, worse for consumers.” She did, however, offer a possible olive branch after meeting Trump’s vice president in Paris, hailing a “good discussion” and hinting at a coordinated response to China’s state-backed steel production, which the US and EU consider anticompetitive. The first Trump administration imposed similar tariffs in 2018, leading to EU retaliation, but the two sides de-escalated and suspended the duties, Politico reported.

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3

Fed chair talks down rate cuts

A chart showing average Fed rates by decade.

The head of the Federal Reserve said the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates further. Jerome Powell told a Senate committee that fiscal policy was already “significantly less restrictive” than in recent years and further adjustments risked the fight against still-high inflation, while other economic indicators remained positive, with a slowing but still strong labor market. While ultra-low rates were the norm for over a decade after the 2008 financial crisis, as central banks tried to boost spending by offering cheap money, the pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to rapid inflation, and the Fed has returned to something like the old normal, with rates in line with the 1990 to 2007 average.

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4

Trump reignites Canada polls

A shop in Canada showing “Buy Canadian Instead” signs.
Chris Helgren/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats have upended Canadian politics, reigniting an election race previously seen as a foregone conclusion. The ruling Liberal Party was “shop-worn” after 10 years in government, and the opposition Conservatives were set to win a comfortable majority, The Guardian’s Canada correspondent reported. But Trump’s comments threatening to annex Canada and make it the “51st state” have led to “a groundswell of visceral patriotism,” with boycotts of American-made products and the US anthem jeered at sports events. That has benefited the Liberals, because the Conservative leader’s rightwing populism has drawn comparisons with Trump. The Liberals still trail in the polls, but the Conservatives have lost around 12 points in two weeks.

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5

US spies on ‘terrorist’ cartels

A U2 spy plane.
A U2 spy plane. Wikimedia Commons.

The US military has ramped up its surveillance of Mexican drug cartels after Washington designated them terrorist groups. The presence of spy planes in international airspace around the Baja peninsula has sparked controversy in Mexico, with the defense secretary saying he had not been informed of the flights’ purpose. Although the terrorist designation gives US authorities extraordinary powers to fight the cartels — a key campaign promise of US President Donald Trump — it could hurt economic growth on both sides of the border. Anyone who has contact with cartels, knowingly or not, “could be accused of collaborating with terrorists, from avocado producers in Michoacán that pay to stay alive, to the US gun industry,” a Bloomberg columnist wrote.

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6

Italy arrests mafia bosses

Chart showing Italy’s murder rate by year.

Italy arrested 160 suspected Cosa Nostra members in the largest crackdown on the mafia in 20 years. Sicily’s notorious gangs terrorized the southern Italian island for decades, but a police offensive in the 1990s and 2000s left many bosses dead or imprisoned, weakening their influence. Some “godfathers” were recently released after serving long sentences, though, and quickly started rebuilding: One academic told the Financial Times that the gangs have “extraordinary organizational resilience.” Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has stepped up measures against them, and wiretaps revealed efforts to recruit new members and reestablish their dominance. The mafia still has a dark glamor, the FT reported, but Meloni said the arrests were “a very hard blow.”

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7

DRC rebels break ceasefire

M23 militiamen.
M23 militiamen. Arlette Bashizi/Reuters

A rebel alliance led by the Rwanda-backed M23 militia resumed its attacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo despite calls from regional leaders to respect a ceasefire. The rebels, who recently seized a key city in the mineral-rich eastern DRC, previously vowed to take control of the entire country of more than 100 million, sparking fears of a huge humanitarian crisis. The conflict has already forced hundreds of thousands to flee, with many seeking refuge in neighboring countries. The acceleration of the conflict comes as local aid groups have come under immense strain after Washington cut crucial foreign aid that last year accounted for 70% of the DRC’s humanitarian operations.

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Live Journalism
Image showing guests at Semafor’s Trust in News Summit.

FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr will take the stage at Semafor’s Trust in News Summit, hosted at the Gallup Great Hall in Washington, DC, on February 27— set to be the premier media event of the year. This exclusive gathering will bring together the most influential voices in journalism to tackle one of the industry’s most urgent challenges: Rebuilding public trust.

With insights from Gallup’s leading trust in news data, the powerhouse lineup includes Fox News’ Bret Baier, NBCUniversal News Group’s Cesar Conde, Mehdi Hasan, The New York Times’ Joe Kahn, Megyn Kelly, NPR’s Katherine Maher, and CNN’s Mark Thompson, alongside Semafor editors and reporters. This is an invitation-only gathering in Washington that will be livestreamed.

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8

Battery giant set for Hong Kong listing

Chart showing global lithium-ion battery production capacity.

The world’s biggest battery maker filed to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, hoping to raise at least $5 billion to consolidate its lead over competitors. CATL is vying to expand its presence abroad, including building production sites across Europe. Although US firms once produced the most advanced lithium-ion batteries — the technology they’re built on was developed in Texas in the 1990s — China now accounts for more than 70% of global production. Some fear that US President Donald Trump’s recent rollback of subsidies for the EV industry, one of the biggest purchasers of batteries, will further strengthen Beijing’s advantage. “It is precisely the kind of shortsighted, stop-start thinking that got us into this mess in the first place,” Thomas Friedman argued in The New York Times.

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9

Rent control end boost for Argentina

An elderly couple on a Buenos Aires apartment balcony.
Cristina Sille/Reuters

Argentinian President Javier Milei’s move to end rent control has revived the country’s moribund housing market. The previous government introduced sweeping restrictions on rents and tenancy lengths during the pandemic, to protect tenants against rent hikes. But the rules, plus requirements that rent be paid in the rapidly devaluing peso, created unmanageable risks for landlords, many of whom sold up, used short-term Airbnb-style rentals, or resorted to the black market. The result was fewer homes and higher prices, Reason reported. Milei revoked the rules in late 2023, and the market has transformed: Rental supply in Buenos Aires has tripled, and real rents have fallen by a quarter.

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10

Capturing carbon from seawater

Some seawater.
Creative Commons

Researchers are experimenting with capturing carbon from seawater instead of from the atmosphere, hoping it may prove more efficient. Keeping global warming to acceptable levels will likely require not just reduced emissions but lowering existing carbon levels. Carbon capture plants exist, but they are small and energy-hungry. Carbon dioxide dissolved in seawater is more easily removed, using cheaply available acid: Oceans absorb a third of emissions, and if carbon is removed from the water, it can take in more from the air. The UK-based experiment is very small scale, New Scientist reported, capturing just a few tons of carbon in a year, but if successful will be scaled up to absorb several hundred.

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Flagging
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrives in Indonesia for a state visit.
  • NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels.
  • Rock & Roll Hall of Fame announces its 2025 nominees.
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Semafor Stat
175

The number of World War II bombs found underneath a children’s playground in northeastern England. The devices were “practice” bombs, containing only small charges, but are still dangerous and had to be removed by specialist teams: The town had been a training center for the Home Guard, the volunteer defense militia known as the “Dad’s Army.” Unexploded ordnance from the world wars is a hazard across Europe: 2.7 million tons of bombs were dropped in WWII alone, and farmers find so much matériel along the WWI’s former Western Front that it is known as the “Iron Harvest.”

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Semafor Recommends
Semafor Recommends illustration

Outraged: Why We Fight About Morality and Politics and How to Find Common Ground by Kurt Gray. This “timely” book seeks to explain the roots of moral disagreement: How well-meaning people “collide over morality and how such collisions can be avoided,” according to Nature. Gray suggests that liberals and conservatives’ disagreements often stem from their focus on different victims: In climate policy, for instance, the former might think of environmental damage to ecosystems, while the latter pictures workers’ job losses. “Each group is seeking to protect someone from harm.” It is a “remarkably calm” and “pragmatic” book, aimed at helping us “become more sympathetic citizens.” Buy Outraged at your local bookstore.

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Semafor Spotlight
Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

In his first weeks in office, Donald Trump has flooded the zone with executive orders, impromptu press conferences, and boundaries-testing moves to slash government — a strategy that Steve Bannon articulated during Trump’s first term.

Bannon spoke to Semafor’s Ben Smith about why he thinks the strategy — which he’s calling Trump’s “Days of Thunder” — is working brilliantly this time around. “The media is a complete total meltdown,” he said.

For more scoops, exclusives, and analysis on the media landscape, subscribe to Semafor’s weekly Media newsletter. →

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