The News
Taiwan’s President William Lai made a forceful defense of the self-ruling island’s independence in his most high-profile address since taking office earlier this year, arguing Beijing had no right to represent it and vowing “to resist annexation or encroachment.”
A Chinese foreign affairs spokesperson said Lai’s speech “exposed his intransigent position” on Taiwanese independence, and represented an attempt to escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait for political gain.
SIGNALS
Beijing’s outrage is unlikely to translate into ramped up military action
Lai’s speech, which also broached the possibility of cooperating with Beijing on matters including climate change and regional security, was the most “pragmatic,” “level-headed,” and relatively “snark-free” he has made yet, a political scientist at the National Taiwan University wrote on X. It could nevertheless provoke a strong response from China, which is expected to launch military drills this week, Reuters reported, though Beijing may hold back to avoid highlighting tensions with Taiwan so close to the US presidential election, a Taipei-based diplomatic source told the outlet. Despite its “sabre-rattling,” Beijing knows that a military assault on Taiwan runs the risk of direct conflict with the US, and would be poorly timed given domestic problems like sluggish economic growth and military corruption, International Crisis Group argued.
US presidential transition must be well-managed to reduce tensions
Analysts say that whoever wins the US presidential election in November will likely maintain much of the Biden administration’s approach to Taiwan, though there is some concern that Trump would be more willing to negotiate with China over Taipei and less likely to go to war to defend the latter, a China expert at the Center for Strategic & International Studies noted. Plans should be in place in the months before and after the next US president’s inauguration to ensure that the transition “does not create openings for China to engage in provocative and opportunistic behavior,” she argued. Failure to continue deterring China from a military invasion of Taiwan would spell “dire consequences” for nuclear warfare and the global economy, The Economist wrote.