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Global diesel market supply crunch could push up prices

Sep 9, 2026, 6:32am EDT
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Storage tanks for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products in California.
Bing Guan/Reuters

The global diesel refining crunch could lead to high prices and tight supplies for months, roiling industry, analysts warned.

Conflict in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries — which have prompted Moscow to impose diesel export bans — have led to a substantial amount of processing capacity being lost. The crunch has seen the gasoil benchmark price jump twice as much as Brent crude since the US-Iran war started.

But some are profiting: Nigeria’s giant Dangote crude refinery is running flat out as it looks to maximize exports of diesel and jet fuel to Europe, with its CEO telling Bloomberg he felt ā€œextremely bullishā€ about margins over the medium term.

Chart showing US diesel retail prices by year.
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