Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek narrowly leads his Republican opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinson, in Iowa’s crucial Senate race, according to internal polling from the Democrat’s campaign first shared with Semafor. Turek is garnering 46% of the vote to Hinson’s 42%, while Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn is getting 6%, and 6% of voters are undecided, according to the survey from Global Strategy Group conducted for Turek’s campaign.
Those are notable numbers for Turek in a state dominated by the GOP for the past decade; Turek has an edge among independent voters and a positive favorability rating compared to Hinson, who is viewed more negatively. Another warning sign for the GOP: Trump is nine points underwater in Iowa, a state he’s won three times — including by 13 points in 2024. Most strategists see the race as a toss-up, though Hinson is narrowly leading most recent polls.