The News
A surprise Ukrainian offensive into western Russia forced Moscow to evacuate villages and redeploy troops, as analysts said they were puzzled by Kyiv’s strategy.
The assault in the Kursk region appeared more organized and better equipped than prior raids, and came after Moscow’s forces made advances elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.
Washington said the attack did not violate US rules on the use of its weapons, but added it was unclear on Ukraine’s objectives, the Kyiv Post reported.
SIGNALS
Attack marks a shift in strategy for Ukraine
Ukraine’s decision to carry out an incursion into Russian territory is something “completely new,” Ruslan Pukhov, director of the defense think tank CAST, told The Wall Street Journal. Hundreds of Ukrainian troops have been deployed over the border, and Kyiv is using Stryker armored fighting vehicles and tanks, alongside drones, to carry out the operation. The incursion seems to have taken Moscow by surprise, the Journal noted, and while the objective of Ukraine’s advance is currently unclear, it is possible that Kyiv is trying to force Russia to move its forces out of the Donbas region. But “it’s not possible for Ukraine to open up a second front,” one defense expert told the paper. “They need to stabilize the front line in Donbas.”
Ukraine will need to tie up major Russian resources
Russia’s border defenses are likely prepared for small incursions, rather than the large-scale operation Ukraine is carrying out in Kursk, one Ukrainian military analyst said. Russian commanders might have ignored Ukraine’s preparations, and “as a result, Russia has to scramble″ local forces to respond, John Helin, of the think tank Black Bird Group, wrote on X. But the success of the offensive remains uncertain, he added. “To offset the use of manpower and resources and help the crisis areas in the east, Ukraine would need to tie up 2-3 times as many Russian reserves from Donetsk,” he added.